Memetic algorithm applied to forecast future natural gas demand of Turkey
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Tarih
2019
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
International Congress on Human-Computer Interaction, Optimization and Robotic Applications
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This paper presents a Memetic Algorithm (MA) algorithm to forecast natural gas consumption of Turkey. Although Turkey has its own resources to produce natural gas for heating, producing electricity and production; the most of the needed natural gas amount is exported from other countries. Therefore approximate forecasting of vital energy sources such as natural gas is extremely significant for countries having an imbalance between export and import values. This paper suggests MA algorithm for forecasting natural gas consumption in billion cubic meters (bcm) for the years between 2018-2030 by using some historical indicators between 1998 and 2017. Annual GDP at chained volume index, population, export and import of Turkey are selected as historical indicators and independent variables for forecasting in this study. Furthermore a linear regression model is also created to compare the proposed forecasting model. Both of models are used to forecast Turkey future natural gas consumption for two different scenarios. The proposed algorithm outperforms the linear regression model in view of total absolute relative errors from previous natural gas consumptions of Turkey.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Memetic algorithm, forecast future natural gas, Turkey
Kaynak
nternational Congress on Human-Computer Interaction, Optimization and Robotic Applications
