A multiseries stochastic model for synthetic monthly flows

Tefaruk HAKTANIR

A new multiseries stochastic model is developed that takes n-year-long monthly stream flows observed at as many as 20 stations in a group and computes N-year-long synthetic monthly flows for up to 10 000 years. Initially, any series that exhibit trends with a 99% confidence level are detrended. The monthly flows of each observed series are transformed to standard-normal variates, and a variate is related to those of the other series of the same month, those of the previous month of all series, the lag-one moving-average component, and the random component. 2 M parameters of each series are ite ...Daha fazlası